Résumé:
Wealth inequality and political under-representation are drivers of conflict. Once a crisis has morphed from civil disobedience into an armed insurgency, all aspects of regular political and economic activity are disrupted. As the belligerents build ideology and firepower, the audience costs and competition for the control of human capital, natural resources and the means of wealth production in the conflict zone give rise to war entrepreneurs. These can be government agencies and policy makers, non-state armed actors and corporations with deals. A case in which the game theory can be applied to.
In the case of Cameroon, the war being prosecuted in the North West and South West regions has established a conflict economy in which government agents are making lucrative earnings from stillborn conflict resolution commissions and security strategy committees. The tradesmen of war who are regular armed forces and paramilitary contingents are seizing on the complacency of state elites and frail institutions to embark on campaigns of arbitrariness and impunity.
The wanton killing of non-combatants, use of sexual violence as a war strategy, looting of civilian businesses, arrests and extortion for liberation and the preference to use the scorched earth tactic on civilian populations is not only criminal but wrestles away legitimacy from state forces.
On the part of the non-state armed actors, competition for the hearts and minds of the civilian population and local resources is rife. Marred by infighting among militia groups, counter propaganda among liberation movement group leaders. Purges are held to sort out regime apologists or persons collecting and passing intelligence to adversary forces. Amateurism and believe in the occult accounts for many an avoidable deaths on the revolutionary camp. They’ve been serially shooting themselves in the legs.
In the absence of ready made or open cast natural resources which can be smuggled unto the international black market in exchange for arms, landlocked with unsympathetic neighbours has left militia groups to rely on ever diminishing cash inflows from diaspora based funders, hence the emergence of warlords with economic spheres of influence who out-rightly supplant organized economy with a rudimentary and subsistence economy to fund their status and insurgency. Thus kidnapping, hostage taking, ransoms and outright armed robbery on the civilian population gain normalcy.
Elsewhere, rebel groups have had to preserve the local agricultural economy and businesses just so they and the civilian population do not slide into hunger and famine, or as a source of maintenance by in kind contributions and security tributes where they have rooted out state institutions. Controversially, the militias in the Southern Cameroons have enforced a ghost town and stay in doors ultimatum in their areas which has put the whole zone at the risk of famine and further impoverishment yet they still demand ransom from these collapsing businesses, fleeing entrepreneurs and start-ups.
As the conflict gains sophistication in logistics and the correlates of war characteristics, we should expect to see a political economy built around but away from the initial causes of the conflict. Even the macroeconomics of the parent state Cameroon, famed for its corruption and rent seeking, means the resource curse has not had a spillover and the possibility to open up the spread of more civil strife and new conflict theaters remains likely if it experiences cuts in aid or access to exclusive reserves and earth minerals, multilateral financing or domestic inflation, loses its revenue from resources or taxation from rebel held territory.
However Cameroon does not yet suffer from the Dutch disease as its economy though commodity based enjoys a degree of diversity. This could mean armed groups may command local support and diversify financing into the production and sale of natural resources, agriculture, provide civil administration and render public services to the population for a token as central government authority recedes. In the midst of all this anarchy and post traumatic stress is sheer human resilience, quite Darwinian indeed!
Nwanatifu Nwaco, March 2019
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